Friday, April 7, 2017

Booklet: CHINESE THREAT AND OUR DUTY



China’s challenge and our moral duty

Dear brothers and sisters,
 Today, we shall talk about the present context of Swadeshi Andolan. Recently, on the occasion of Deepawali the entire country has been witnessed to the highly motivated, self-energised and reinvigorating Swadeshi agitation against Chines goods. The entire country not only experienced a strong wave to boycott the Chinese goods but also witnessed its widespread effect among the people of the country. This agitation is not only limited to discarding the Chinese and foreign goods but also aims to prove that entire India and its citizens are sharing the similar thinking and vision. From Haryana to Tamil Nadu the youthful heart of young Indian is bonded with the same idea. Everywhere there is alike feeling and mission. Recently, I had the opportunity to visit the prestigious and one of the largest university of Tamil Nadu ‘Bhartidasam’ University situated in Trichi. However, students of the university do not understand much Hindi yet, they raised about 150 hands like north Indian students when it came to the issue of boycotting Chinese goods. Be it North or South, East or West, every nook and corner of the country seems to look alike on this sensitive issue. I have discussed this issue everywhere in the country because right now discarding (Boycott) of Chinese goods is a focal theme of Swadeshi Andolan. Discussions have been made with the people in New Delhi, Jharkhand, Punjab and Gujrat over this issue. Moreover, Social media is also flooded with the issues pertaining to Chinese goods boycott. Even several researches are putting credibility to these statistics.  According to reports cited by Times of India and Bloomberg the sale of Chinese goods have witnessed 20 to 70 percent decline across various states of India. Similar reports have been published by The New Indian Express, Dainik Bhaskar and Dainik Jagran newspapers also. Almost similar findings have been revealed through a survey conducted by CAIT (Confederation of All India Traders). 
The campaign to Boycott Chines goods have got the huge public response, almost alike the Gandhi Ji’s historic ‘Swadeshi Andolan’ against English goods during Indian freedom struggle. However, during that time modern day’s advanced ratings and statistical systems were not developed, yet, the common people’s sentiments against the foreign goods continues to be the same. 

The need for “Swadeshi Jagran” 
Entire country has consensus on this Swadeshi Andolan. What is the reason behind such a huge success of SJM’s Chinese goods Boycott campaign? Is it only the power of Swadeshi Jagran Manch campaign or something else? There other reasons as well, because the genesis of any movement is not without reasons but because of India’s widespread economic, social and security issues for which SJM is ceaselessly working since last many years. 
It was only post Uri militant attack when Chinese administration ruthlessly made several diplomatic statements and extended support to Pakistan based Militant groups, that China’s vicious intentions towards India became crystal clear. Earlier, China had been vehemently opposing the India’s effort to achieve membership to the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). Moreover, neither China nor Pakistan stand to lose anything out of this. This has led to a widespread public movement against China, born out of people’s rage and anger against China’s negative outlook towards India.   
India-China Trade Relations: Gigantic Trade Deficit and Economic Threat
Let us look beyond security issues and analyse India’s trade relations with China.
India has 640 million US dollars international trade with 190 countries. This includes 261.1-billion-dollars exports and 379 billion dollar imports. India incurred a big trade deficit of 119 billion dollars in a single year of 2015-16! It is important to understand causes behind this rising trade deficit. Profit is the major objective of trade. Then what are those policies of government which is causing such a huge loss to the nation. The same policies are still in practice which were followed by earlier governments and there is no big change in export import policies. Exports are not growing. Domestic factories are shutting down because of rising Chines imports. Unemployment is also growing.
Our biggest import is of petroleum products (crude oil). International markets are witnessing a decline in crude oil prices which stands at 50.6 US dollar per barrel (as on 31 march 2017). India’s crude oil import is about 22.42 (31 March 2017, Ministry of Commerce, Government of India) percent of total imports. India does not import oil from China but from middle east countries (Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq etc.), Russia, African and South American countries. 
It is Ironical that our biggest import item oil does not come from China yet we incur a trade deficit of 52.8 billion dollars with it amounting to 44% of Indian trade deficit for 2015-16. A closer look at this reveals that in 2015-16 India’s total trade (including export import) with China was 71.6 billion dollars consisting of huge 61.8 billion dollars of imports and only 9 billion dollars of exports. These statistics assume significance in order to feel the spirit of “Swadeshi Andolan” and understand its importance for our country. Further, it is important to understand the concept of balance of trade which is the difference between nation’s imports and exports. Now, if we exclude contribution of petroleum products to India’s total trade deficit (as India does not import petroleum products from China) this 44 percent trade deficit swells to 60-70 percent of India’s total trade deficit for the year 2015-16 !

As per 2015-16 trade data of government of India China is the top trading partner of India, followed by USA (62.1 billion dollars) at second position, United Arab Emirates (49.7 billion dollar) at third position and country like Japan (14.5 billion dollars) at 11th position. China’s value of total trade with india translates into Rupees 462976 crores (Rupee- Dollar exchange rate as on 1 March 2017) !! This enormous trade deficit remains still alarming even if, we develop friendly relations with China because of sheer economic ill effects of this huge trade deficit on our country.  The trade deficit of this size will pose a great economic threat to India even if it results from our trade with Japan with which India shares very health and friendly diplomatic relations or for that matter, with Russia. India has been experiencing bitter diplomatic relations with China on several economic and security issues, therefore, it is not difficult to understand that if we are running such a huge trade deficit with China it is at the cost of the nation’s economic and security safety. China’s recent behavior with India at the international stage and it’s chequered history adds more fuel to this fire. India’s imports from China consists of mostly Electronics Equipments, Machinery, Chemicals, pharmaceutical drugs and Plastic. Electronic equipments (including telecom ) alone consist of 20.9 billion dollars followed by Machinery (10.7 billion dollar) Organic chemicals ($5.6 billion), Plastics ($1.8 billion) and so on.
‘Swadeshi’ is must for creating employment 
Today, entire country and particularly the youth, need to pay immediate attention towards significant economic issues. As we have just observed that rising trade deficit with China has heavily dented our capacity to create employment as small scale industry is almost dying down.  We also import substantially from gulf countries, Europe and USA. This also needs to be curb down for the simple reason that as we increase our exports , we increase our domestic production and which means, more employment. According to recent report of Government of India the country needs to generate 1.15 crores jobs per year to meet the challenge of unemployment. However, there is mismatch between the educated youth produced by our universities and colleges and the number of employment opportunities. There are too many young educated and too little jobs. India is fortunate in a sense that we are the youngest country on the earth! Considering 200 countries of the world, India has the fortune of hosting 61 percent of total young population of these countries (15-35 years age group). On the other hand, countries like Japan, China and Europe are aging. About 10-15 years back it was the common perception that India’s large population is a liability and needs to be controlled. Governments of those days provided not only the monetary benefits and schemes to tackle the issue but also took the extremely undemocratic step like forced ‘family planning’ in 1975 after imposing emergency. Even then ‘Swadeshi’ was of the opinion that India’s youth was not its liability but an asset and strength of the nation. Swadeshi firmly believes that youth should not be hold responsible if the country is not creating enough employment opportunities for them. Rather, employment generation should be the focus point for our government.
Today, farming is the major source of employment for youth. Farming or agriculture sector has limited employment generation capacity. More so, for the nation which has 65 percent population exclusively depending on agriculture. However, agriculture sector is creating more than 50 percent of employments but this is not sufficient. Therefore, we must increase our manufacturing base to generate more jobs for the youth. It is time that India should no more remain an importing nation but an exporting nation full of employments. On the recent Deepawali, SJM had a nationwide successful campaign to boycott the Chinese goods. Such campaigns will be certainly beneficial for the nation if applied with full vigor and energy in other areas  and occasions also.
India- China diplomatic relations: A threat to national security
Chinese goods may be cheaper to buy but their quality is poor thereby, lesser lifetime, and quickly damaged.  Cheaper or costlier, good quality or bad quality, Chinese goods must not be bought as this poses not only economic threat but also the military threat for our nation. There are concerns far greater than economic when it comes to Indo-Chinese trade as it compromises both, the Safety of our soldiers and security of our borders. Chinese defense budget is five times that of India’s. Whereas India spends 40 billion dollar or lesser per year, China spends 200 billion dollar annually on strengthening its defense and military. China also outsmart India in terms of size of economy measured in GDP. Indian Economy at 2.3 trillion dollars just a minuscule when compared with giant Chinese economy measuring 11.4 trillion dollars in 2015-16. Today China is the second largest economy of the world after the largest economy of USA. Subsequently, Japan, Germany and India occupies third fourth and fifth rank. India has just inched towards the fifth largest economy of the world from earlier seventh position. China is blocking every attempt of India to gain international prestige and position of significance. It is widely known fact that Masood Azher, the chief of notorious Pakistani terrorist outfit Jesh-E-Mohmmad , was the master mind behind Pathankot and Uri terror attack. Despite all the proofs of his involvement like “voice records” etc. being provided by India to Pakistan and international community.
China blocked India’s proposal at the United Nation’s security council to get Masood Azhar and Jesh-E-Mohammad to be banned as international terrorist . It is sixth time that China has thwarted India’s proposal on Masood Azher in the 15 member UN Security Council whereas 14 members were unanimously supported the proposal. China’s open support for such a dreaded terrorist reflects China’s "double standards" in dealing with terrorism. 
China is again leading opposition along with six other countries to a proposal pushed by the United States (US) and other major powers for India to join the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), which is a group of 48 countries controlling access to sensitive nuclear technology. The 48-nation group frames and implements agreed rules for exporting nuclear equipment, with a view to controlling the spread of nuclear weapons; members are admitted only by consensus. If the proposal is accepted, then it would enable India to sell its nuclear waste to other countries for non-military use. India does not seek entry into this group for exploring its military might but for only commercial reasons. Moreover, there is nothing for Pakistan or China to lose.  In this group 47 to 39 country are there with America and other European countries and these countries support India because of its competitiveness and efficiency yet, China does not change its stance. China does not miss single occasion at the international stage to suppress the upsurge of India as a global power.  It has become China’s habit to create obstacle for India and openly support Pakistan along with its nefarious activities. 
Take another example, just 10 days after Uri terror attack India launched surgical strike in Pakistan on 28 September 2016 to dismantle terrorist camps. Thereafter, India reviewed 1956 ‘Sindhu Water Treaty’ and expressed opinion that if Pakistan continues with state sponsored terrorist activities then India may consider blocking Sindhu water flow towards Pakistan. Hardly four days after this, China almost stopped the water flow of Xiabuqu river, a tributary of the Brahmaputra river in Tibet. The China’s message was clear that if India stops Sindhu water flowing into Pakistan it would not hesitate to do the same with Brahmaputra river.
World Wide Perspective of China: Dangerous 
It is not that China has bitter ties with India alone but with other economically strong countries also. China has even more bitter and estranged diplomatic relations with Japan who does not even share its boundaries with China. The reason behind this conflict is the disputed claim of China over Senkaku Islands, a group of uninhabited islands controlled by Japan in the East China Sea. Senkaku Iceland which is 1200 km from Japan’s border and 1250 km from China’s border. No one lives there and it is small part of land, Japan has installed a light house to use for ship navigation purpose only. China intends to acquire these islands because they are close to important shipping lanes, provides rich fishing grounds and located near potential oil and gas reserves.  Senkaku islands are also strategically significant because of their geographical position and may provide China a naval base and military primacy in the Asia-Pacific region.
China also did not share any border with Vietnam and yet it launched a war on Vietnam in 1979 and lost it as well. China is also at conflict with Indonesia and Malesia. However, China Sri Lanka relations are good and getting better. China only has good relationship with Pakistan, North Korea and to some extent Sri Lanka. One can well understand the chines psyche when it favors one of the most dangerous and volatile nations like Pakistan and North Korea. The lesser we speak about North Korea the better it is.  Strangely, China is not enjoying good relations with any of cultured and peaceful country of the world. Ironically, China has 28% of business and 800 million dollars investment in USA but still it does not hesitate to escalate tension with USA over a minor issue. 
Nature of China
In India whenever youth joins with any type of program or revolution they must understand the philosophy behind such program or revolution.  Besides trade deficit and national security, it is also important to understand the DNA, nature and thinking perspective of China. It is important to understand for not only Indian government but every enlightened youth of this country as well. Right from the Citizen of India to the Prime Minister, one must keep it in mind whenever initiating any talks or agreement with China. World knows the painful story of Tibet, which has been engulfed by china and forced the Dalia Lama to quit Tibet along with many Tibetans and live like refugees in India since last 56-57 years.  One must also beware of the fact that as the Pakistan has become an colony and puppet of China the India should remain cautioned and alarmed.
India’s response to China’s Besieging:
China has made an ambitious plan to promote its trade and commercial interests and besieging our country. China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC ) is  a giant project of China valued at $ 46 billion which aims at rapidly expanding and upgrading Pakistan’s infrastructure and strengthening the economic ties between China and Pakistan. CPEC eventually aims at linking the city of Gwadar in South Western Pakistan to China’s North Western region Xinjiang through a vast network of highways and railways.
India has strongly opposed the proposed corridor as it might pose a threat to the security of the nation because CPEC passes through Pakistan Occupied Kashmir but its appeal is falling on deaf ears. Chinese President Xi Jinping extended a huge loan (in term of a credit line) of 24 billion dollar to a small country like Bangladesh which hardly need such generosity during BRICs meet at Goa. He even stayed at Bangladesh before arriving at Goa. This reveals the nefarious design of China who wants to distance Bangladesh from India. When Shri Narender Modi, PM of India visited Bangladesh he extended the credit line of 2 billion dollar to Bangladesh in order to strengthen our relations with neighboring country. PM Modi also promised Bangladesh to extend more credit in future on the need basis. Despite this China plotting to hijack the Indian initiative by extending the larger credit line to Bangladesh and spoiling our good relations with it.  
How can we forget the war of 1962 and acquisition of 37,500 sq. km. of Aksai Chin land by China. About 1383 soldiers sacrifice their lives and 1697 reported missing. In 1963 Pakistan gave away 5180 sq. km. of  POK land to China. China also acquired the 90,000 sq. km. of land belonging to Arunachal Pradesh and Ladhakh. It is the habit of Chinese army to cross Indian international border at least 400 to 500 times a year. In 2013 China’s army came 19 sq. km. inside the Daulat Beg Oldi region of Ladhakh and it was only after a shameful agreement with China forcing Indian army to dismantle its own bunkers that Chinese troops retreated. The same year Dr. Manmohan Singh, the former Prime minister of India, planned to visit Arunachal Pradesh but China summoned Indian ambassador in China ( who was a lady) at 2 a.m. in night and pressurized Indian PM to cancel his journey. Finally, succumbing to Chinese pressure Dr. Manmohan Singh cancelled his trip. Therefore, Chinese international outlook is a source of threat for India.
If we see China’s Silk Root Planning which is CPEC connecting Xinjiang in Northwestern region of China with Pakistan’s Gwadar port on the Arabian sea, going over the Pakistan occupied Kashmir territory of and the disputed region of Gilgit-Balochistan of Pakistan. Gwadar port has been already gifted to China by Pakistan and China has already built naval base there. 
Similarly, China is escalating its activities at Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port and Bangladesh’s Chittagong port. China has staged the series of military activities from Indian Ocean to East China Sea. The Hight of China’s defiance reflects from the fact that it is not even willing to accept the judgment of International Tribunal over South China Sea where it is resurrecting the artificial islands for promoting military activities.
In retaliation India too signed an agreement with Iran to develop the Chabahar port at a cost of 85 million dollars which is just 60 km. away from Gwader port. India has also strengthen its relationships with Bangladesh and Sri Lanka and signed many military agreements with them. If China has set up its Nuclear Missiles near Arunachal Pradesh then India has also landed its C-17 Globmaster (heavy lift transport aircraft capable of carrying tanks) just 26 km. away from China’s border. India has also extended the one billion dollar credit line to Mongolia in order to counter China.
China’s strength and weakness:
Many people ask us why Chinese goods are cheap and Indian costly? China is not a democratic country and any law which is approved by its central cabinet gets  passed in Chinese parliament the very next day. On the other hand, political parties frustrate the government, whether the issue is Demonetisation or any important appointment. China has acquired the lands from farmers at cheap rate and passed on to industrialists at low prices. It has offered subsidized loans to industries at extremely low interest rates ranging from 4 to 4.5 percent, ensured subsidized power and most of all, dirt cheap labor. China has no regards for Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) and basic principles of economics. China has practiced a philosophy of “Break the arm of neighbor first, no matter doing so one may break his legs too” and captured more than 23 percent share of international market.
This all ends now. Chinese exports are declining because of continuously rising cost of its exports. Once, the healthy GDP growth rate of 10.5 percent has come down to 6 percent or lower. It is witnessing incidences of job cuts, rising strikes and agitations and spiraling corruption.
A ray of hope:
India has experienced a successful revolution against Chinese goods during the last Deepawali. It must continue in future too. During my recent trip to Panipat (Haryana) I came to know that domestic Mink Blanket industry has been revived. Gradually Chinese goods are becoming costlier and Indian goods cheaper. Sivakashi cracker industry is also staging comeback. The Anti Dumping Duty imposed on Chinese steel has strengthen the domestic steel industry including the one at Mandi Gobindgarh of Punjab. China plastic has been banned very recently.
Therefore, we must remember that the campaign to boycott Chinese goods should go on ceaselessly so as to strengthen our national security, improve our trade balance and generate more employment opportunities. It is hoped that all of us will join this national campaign.
Bharat Mata Ki Jai.



Kashmirilal,Mobile 098682-71424
011-26182166,01124508789'
Shiv Shakti Mandir, 
RK Puram Sector 8, 
NEW DELHI - 110022, and my blog is : kashmirilal-lal.blogspot.com and Facebook: Kashmiri Lal or at kashmirilal@rediffmail.com  and swadeshi Jagaran Manch (officially) is our page 
Pl visit our new oficial site: www.swadeshionline.in and www.swadeshineeti.org

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